HOW IT WORKS
Four layers of fatigue prediction
No single fatigue model captures the full picture. The sleep estimator does not know about circadian troughs. The circadian model does not account for cumulative sleep debt. The HSE methodology does not predict actual alertness. RosterWise runs all four in parallel and reconciles them into a single, confidence-graded risk assessment for every shift.
THE FOUR-LAYER ENGINE
Each layer answers a different question. Together they form one assessment.
Layer 01
Probabilistic Sleep Estimator
Estimates likely sleep timing and duration from shift schedule, commute, and circadian phase. Uses Bayesian inference calibrated against published shift-worker sleep studies.
Layer 02
Åkerstedt-Folkard Three-Process Model
Predicts alertness from sleep history through the interaction of homeostatic sleep pressure (Process S), circadian rhythm (Process C), and sleep inertia (Process W).
Layer 03
HSE Fatigue Risk Index (RR446)
Calculates relative risk from shift timing, duration, rest periods, and cumulative work, using the published peer-reviewed coefficients (Spencer, Robertson & Folkard, 2006).
Layer 04
Risk & Intervention Classifier
Reconciles the three upstream models into a single traffic-light output with confidence badges: Calculated, Estimated, or Indicative.
CONFIDENCE
Honest uncertainty, not false precision
When we do not have enough data, we say so. Grey cells in the dashboard mean “not enough information” — not “everything is fine.” Every prediction carries a confidence badge so safety professionals know how much weight to place on it.
Based on verified data with high confidence. Use these outputs to drive operational decisions.
Based on probabilistic models with moderate confidence. Cross-check before acting on individual shifts.
Directional guidance only — insufficient data for precise prediction. Treat as a flag for further enquiry.
WHAT EMPLOYERS SEE
Aggregate-only, always
Employers see team-level patterns, never individuals. Heatmaps roll up to a minimum group size of five workers. Ghost shift alerts. Compliance dashboards. Weekly Health Check reports. Individual worker data is never visible to employers, line managers, or HR.
Aggregate view — no individual data
Week 12 · Logistics South
Team fatigue heatmap
Ghost shifts detected: 19 of 87
Min group size: 5
Your forecast
Week of 14 Apr
Confidential — your employer does not see this.
Mon 14
06:00 – 14:00
Tue 15
06:00 – 14:00
Wed 16
14:00 – 22:00
Thu 17
22:00 – 06:00
Fri 18
22:00 – 06:00
Sat 19
Rest
WHAT WORKERS SEE
A confidential coach, not a monitor
Workers see their own personal fatigue forecast and shift-specific alertness guidance, through a private mobile app. Their employer cannot access this data. Their line manager cannot request it. HR cannot view it. The app is designed to help, not to monitor.
INTEGRATION
Three ways to get your roster in
File upload
Excel (.xlsx, .xls) or CSV, in whatever format you currently use. Our AI-powered parser handles the messy reality of UK rosters.
API integration
Direct connection to scheduling platforms including Deputy, Planday, UKG, and others. Pre-publication risk scoring on every roster you produce.
Manual entry
For smaller teams or ad-hoc analysis. Build a roster in-browser and analyse it without touching your production system.
Upload a sample roster. Get your Health Check in minutes.
No commitment. No sales call required. Just data — ghost shifts, risk distribution, and a compliance gap assessment.